Is Justin Jefferson worthy of the 1st overall pick?

As we head in to the upcoming season, the fantasy world is calling for Justin "Jets" Jefferson to be selected as the first overall pick. Are they valid in making a case for Jefferson? Currently in FPPR format, Jefferson's ADP is 1.01 or 1.02 depending on which site you go through and deservingly so after last year's performance. Hauling in 128 receptions for 1,809 yards, and 8 touchdowns, JJettas2 finished as the number one wide receiver in fantasy(5th overall) in only his third year in the league. Already heralded as the best receiver in the game at the age of 24 and at the start of his prime, it makes sense why so many are high on Jefferson.

The Jefferson truthers are hoping that his trajectory is on pace to surpass a legendary season set by none other than Cooper Kupp in 2021.

Kupp had the league in a chokehold that year as he went for 145 receptions, 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns. He finished the year with 439.5 points(FPPR scoring) making it the seventh greatest season of all time. 439.5 points is the upside that many are hopeful Jefferson can touch this season, but is it feasible?

The short answer is maybe, but that maybe is enough to make him a worthwhile pick at the 1.01. He is going to command nearly 191 targets like Kupp did in 2021. Last year, he was targeted 184 times. The stark difference is the catch percentage and touchdowns between the two. Cooper Kupp's catch percentage in 2021 was 75.9% catch rate which is tied for the third-highest among any receivers with more than 150 targets in a season. Jefferson could only muster a catch percentage of 69.6%. Though, he only had 134 catchable balls with 5 drops of the year, while Kupp had 158 catchable balls with 8 drops in that year. We can blame Kirk Cousins for that. If Jefferson sees an increase of catchable passes coupled with his staggering number of targets and target share, the sky is the limit.

In addition to the catch percentage, touchdowns, which is a sticky stat to project, separates the two and it appears it may be difficult for Jefferson to approach or even surpass 16 touchdowns. Jefferson led the league in 2022 with 28 targets. His counterpart, Adam Thielen, had 21 targets. Now that Theilen is gone, there are potentially 21 targets vacated for Jefferson to eat into. There's just one issue, TJ Hockenson, Jordan Addison, and KJ Osborn exists on this team. I would expect TJ Hockenson to assume a portion of those targets as he continues to build a rapport with Kirk Cousins. Jordan Addison will take some time to get acclimated just like any rookie, but he should see an uptick in production by the end of the season. Then there's KJ Osborn to clean up the scrap like any other year. Double digit touchdowns are in the cards for Jefferson. The opportunities are there and he has reached this benchmark in 2021 which is more than enough to make him enticing at the 1.01, but snagging 16 touchdowns may be a tall task for the superstar receiver.

As far as receiving yards is concerned, Jefferson is poised to touch 2,000 yards of the year this season. Even with 4 abysmal games, he was only 138 yards off from Kupp's 2021 mark. So the upside is there, but it is concerning that last year, Jefferson had 6 games with fewer than 50 receiving yards. He had 9 boom games(all within the top 5) with 2 finishes as the number one receiver of the week, but the bust games were significant to the point that it may have cost his managers the week, especially during championship week with a lowly finish as the 84th rank receiver in fantasy with 2.5 points. It is a bit of an eye sore especially as you start splitting hairs on who deserves to be the 1.01, but it shouldn't deter anyone from picking him as the first overall pick.

Even if he falls slightly short of replicating Cooper Kupp's 2021 season, it should be enough to make him worthy of the 1.01. He's a different animal, but the same beast, who is at the start of his prime with a Griddy as cold as the one handed grab he had against the Bills.

Also, the days are long gone when we only considered running backs at the 1.01. The league is pass friendly and caters to the quarterback. We're also in the midst of a wide receiver renaissance with players like Ja'Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Chris Olave, and Garrett Wilson emerging as next up. It only makes sense to select JJettas2, who could possibly be on the cusp of making history, as the 1.01.

Others considered at the 1.01:

- Christian McCaffrey

- Ja'Marr Chase

- Austin Ekeler

- Travis Kelce(Dark Horse selection)